now we can talk about the fiscal cliff. [laughter] let me start off just by, what we will do chris, we will do the house rules and cut in half. in 30 seconds and then we will have time to elaborate on all of this. i just want to go through the panel. what do you think the odds are that some kind of appeal will be cut by january 1 in order to avoid sequestration? mark, i will start with you. >> i think it's 80% that we will avoid sequestration. the question is though, is this going to be a big enough deal and will it actually be the down payment that will lead to something else? it will actually avoid the consequences. that percentage would be lower than the 80%. >> let's come back to the big picture. just in the short-term by january 1, will we avoid the cliff? >> i think it's likely that we will avoid it. it's so easy for us just to do what we need to do. i think the real line in the sand is -- and i have said that for a long time. i think that is one hopefully by that time we will have real entitlement reform which will b